Frank F. Matthews wrote:
>
>
> mrtravel wrote:
>
>> Frank F. Matthews wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>> (PeteCresswell) wrote:
>>>
>>>> Per Mxsmanic:
>>>>
>>>>> Should there have been? Cancer is a leading cause of death, second
>>>>> only to heart disease (it may be number one now, I haven't looked at
>>>>> numbers for a while).
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> I'm no epidemiologist so I couldn't say. But I have to wonder how
>>>> many people
>>>> in the average person's circle of co-workers (let's say 400 people
>>>> max) have
>>>> died from malignant melanoma.
>>>>
>>>> A quick Googling of "Melanoma Incidence" suggests a rate of about 12
>>>> per 100,000
>>>> people - not knowing beans about statistics I don't know enough to
>>>> judge what
>>>> the lack of a timeframe means there...
>>>>
>>>> Still 4 in 400 would seem to be over 80 times that rate, so yes: if
>>>> I were the
>>>> decision-maker, ignorant as I am, I would have had somebody look
>>>> into it.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Perhaps. But then again very unlikely events happen constantly.
>>> Just how many sets of 400 co-workers are there out there?
>>>
>>
>> Additionally, the 12 in 100000 rate might not be correct.
>> A 1999 reported said an individuals lifetime risks were 1 in 75.
>> http://dermatology.jwatch.org/cgi/content/full/1999/201/1
>>
>> So, 4 people out of 400 wouldn't seem that abnormal.
>>
>
> That would change it from 1/12 000 000 to about 1/15.
Which would mean that about 3 deaths would be normal. So, statistically,
a group of 4 wouldn't be out of the range of an expected statistical
probabiliy for a random group of 400. |