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| Subject: Re: A380: The Dam Breaks...
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Posted on: Wed, 8 Nov 2006 16:56:11 +0000 (UTC)
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Mxsmanic wrote:
> Rick Blaine writes:
>
> > Certainly the UPS freighter order is now suspect. The real question is where the
> > passenger orders will go.
>
> The 747 could be kept alive for quite some time.
As much as this might look like the beginning of the end, I suspect
it is only a short term problem. Airbus can't afford to not deliver
this plane and
they will. They have relatively unlimited resources to ensure that the
plane is delivered. Once it is, and they start rolling off an assembly
line,
as long as no serious latent problems are discovered, it becomes a
more predictable aircraft to purchase and easier to sell. At that
point
the only question left will be whether there is a market for the plane.
The 747 won't "replace" an A380. Neither will a 777 or a 787. The
last two will compete and as such the question is whether the A380
is useful or not. That can't be answered now. But there is assuredly
SOME market for such a large plane. The only question will be if
it is big enough to justify the aircrafts costs. I suspect Airbus can
keep
the production going long enough for it to mature into the market well
past the 747's ability to sell aircraft. The only thing that will kill
the
A380 is if the market is just too small. The current problems with
the aircraft have little to do with that question.
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