In article <1170219368.106807.186430@p10g2000cwp.googlegroups.com>,
richasiankid@hotmail.com says...
> On Jan 30, 12:14 pm, Vernon North wrote:
> >
> > > You wrote: "Then why all the posts about how bad China is, with no
> > > mention of the
> > > trajectory?"
> >
> > > Reply: Because China's still vely vely bad! Duh! Do you know what
> > > tutors say to failing students? "Johnny, you're making good progress!"
> > > Because if you're at the bottom, you can't go any lower. And your past
> > > and present GPAs are still not mentionable. Thus the positive focus
> > > has got to be 'progress'. Let's say that the GDP per capita of China
> > > were to double. That's still very low compared to the US or Japan! The
> > > ramifications for the world when China 'grows' has to do with its
> > > population size, but if you take into account per capita stats, China
> > > is really really backward. That's btw the intention of this thread,
> > > now that we're drifting off again and again. Furthermore, as countries
> > > grow, growth tends to plateau out (sigmoidal curve?). So you cannot
> > > just use 'trajectory' and then project China's into the infinite
> > > future in a vacuum - and that's barring any natural disasters,
> > > bursting of economic bubbles, or whatever terrorist surprises we may
> > > have for us. And it will take a very very long time before China
> > > catches up to Japan or US in GDP per capita.
> >
> > IOW, the views you express lack balance.
> >
>
> In what way?
You write extensively about the bad in China (I agree with most of it)
while ignoring the incredible rate of improvement and the growing threat
it presents.
From The Economic Strategy Institute, February 24th, 2006
India vs. China: The Race for the Future
"While nothing is forever, the International Monetary Fund believes
China, which has been growing at a 10 percent annual rate, can maintain
at least 7 to 8 percent growth for the next ten years to fifteen years.
If so, it will surpass Japan to become the world’s second largest
economy in 2016 and could be on a par with the United States by 2040. In
fact, in terms of domestic purchasing power, China’s economy could
effectively be as large as America’s by 2025. It is already the world’s
largest market for more than 100 products such as cell phones, cement,
steel, television sets and machine tools and will soon become the
largest market for almost everything."
Of course, by 2025 the average Chinese will still be much poorer than
the average American. But "small" countries with high per-capita
incomes are still relative "nobodies" globally. How do you feel about a
world in which China is THE economic and military superpower?
>
> >
> >
> >
> > > > --> Reply: In fact I read that China's population is more educated=20
> > > > than India's, I can be wrong though, didn't check. I was asking as I=20
> > > > was surprised you didn't bring India up as counterpoint to China's=20
> > > > 'unique' or 'invention' of a new political system - of how democracy=20
> > > > does not always triumph. From all the stats I've read, China just=20
> > > > razes India (on average, don't look at the extreme ends of the=20
> > > > distribution). See this, for instance:
> >
> > > >http://in.rediff.com/money/2005/sep/27china.htm
> > > > -------
> >
> > > You wrote: "Hmm. I note they mentioned female literacy rates, but not
> > > male or
> > > overall average. Why do you suppose that is????"
> >
> > > Reply: Good point, perhaps the liberalization of womanfolk is
> > > considered an 'index of human development'? Checked out the stats
> > > comparing China and India in literacy rates - from CIA factbook:
> >
> > > China:
> > > definition: age 15 and over can read and write
> > > total population: 90.9%
> > > male: 95.1%
> > > female: 86.5% (2002)
> >
> > > India:
> > > definition: age 15 and over can read and write
> > > total population: 59.5%
> > > male: 70.2%
> > > female: 48.3% (2003 est.)
> >
> > Here's why I gave the edge to India.
> >
> > "India's emphasis on graduate and post-graduate education as well as the
> > availability on the India job market of a large pool of people with
> > excellent English skills offset the disadvantages of a low literacy rate
> > and weak primary and secondary school education. Moreover, while the
> > absolute size of the tertiary-educated population in China is higher
> > than in India, it is much lower as a percentage of population: 5% versus
> > 8% in India. China now adds "only" 1.9 million university graduates a
> > year (up from 600,000 in 1990), while India adds about 2.3 million
> > bachelor-degree graduates and some 300,000 engineers."
> >
> > From:
> >
> > China and India: the rivals' unequal talent pools
> >
> > Hillary K. Wood Chan, Egon Zehnder International, Hong Kong and Shanghai
> >
> > http://www.egonzehnderknowledge.com/knowledge/content/articles/index.php
> > ?article=1903
> >
> >
>
> Robert Frost once said that a liberal is someone who can't take his
> side of the argument. From previous discussions, from this discussion,
> you seem very keen on trajectories. So where's India's trajectory vs
> China's? Didn't you say that you haven't seen any? And did you give
> the edge to India? Which is a greater threat to the West now, China or
> India?
Frost didn't say anything about people who try to oversimplify
arguments, did he? ;)
Now, China. In the future, both. (And India may well end up a bigger
economy than China.)
> Never mind the IQ/human capital difference between India [IQ = 81,
> rough estimate, so let's round up to 90] and China [IQ = 100 - 105] (a
> topic posted long before, and so will not go over same territory), or
> the Deutsche Bank India vs China reports. It looks like India is
> having some huge problems....not exactly a 'bottomless well of
> engineers'?
>
> http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/17/world/asia/17india.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5090&en=59bb0909b2f7e3a6&ex=1318737600&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss
>
> TIRUCHENGODE, India - As its technology companies soar to the
> outsourcing skies, India is bumping up against an improbable
> challenge. In a country once regarded as a bottomless well of low-
> cost, ready-to-work, English-speaking engineers, a shortage looms.
> India still produces plenty of engineers, nearly 400,000 a year at
> last count. But their competence has become the issue........The
> skills gap reflects the narrow availability of high-quality college
> education in India and the galloping pace of the country's service-
> driven economy, which is growing faster than nearly all but China's.
> The software and service companies provide technology services to
> foreign companies, many of them based in the United States. Software
> exports alone expanded by 33 percent in the last year.The university
> systems of few countries would be able to keep up with such demand,
> and India is certainly having trouble. The best and most selective
> universities generate too few graduates, and new private colleges are
> producing graduates of uneven quality.
>
From The Economic Strategy Institute, February 24th, 2006
India vs. China: The Race for the Future
"In sum, if you are a short-term investor, China is probably where you
should put your money. But if you are in it for the long haul, you might
want to bet on India. That certainly seems to be what George Bush is
doing as he heads out this week to make nice with his newest
international friend.
Of course, there is a certain logic in an Indian-Chinese alliance. India
could use China’s manufacturing know-how and resource mobilization
capabilities, and China could learn from India about services, start-
ups, and technology. Indeed, when Chinese President Hu Jin Tao visited
India last fall, it was Indian Prime Minister Singh who said: “Together
we will change the world.”
> >
> > > You wrote: "Most men don't engage in such activities with their wives
> > > in tow, and
> > > I'm one of them."
> >
> > > Reply: "You don't want to have any regrets on your deathbed
> > > though....... ;)
> > > And the amount of swinging of some of my friends ....well.... let's
> > > just leave it at that. Mind you one of them used me (tipped off by an
> > > elementary schoolfriend, wow, she's a 1st rate actress!) to get back
> > > at her boyfriend once, hehe. And this type of thing may happen more
> > > with Caucasians then high achieving geekish WOW playing East Asians -
> > > my schoolfriend's WASP and that gf is eurasian.
> > > And it's surprisingly how women don't understand men!
> > >http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/main.jhtml?xml=/health/2007/01/23/
> > > hlife23.xml&page=1
> > > And Incidentally the default .ual mode for men is serial monogamy or
> > > polygamy, and not strict monogamy."
> >
> > The way to avoid deathbed regrets is to get the whoring out of your
> > system by the time you're 30 or 35, before you marry. Whoring around
> > while married is a formula for turmoil, unhappiness, and deathbed
> > regrets.
> >
>
> "Always get a prenup" - Donald Trump
Would you believe anyone who uses a comb-over?
>
> >
> >
> >
> > > > Thought you're above ad hominems etc.
> >
> > > You wrote: "It's a legitimate question -- your answer may help me to
> > > decide whether
> > > to read your posts in future."
> >
> > > Reply: "That's your choice. I never killfile anyone and I most
> > > certainly don't read all articles."
> >
> > > > What do you=20
> > > > think I am? Just not to be rude not to answer your questions however,=20
> > > > no, no, & yes with a resonant chorus.
> >
> > > You wrote: "But your posts have apparently not been an accurate
> > > summary of your
> > > opinion, no? How does this square with your answers above?"
> >
> > > Reply: "You'll have to judge that for yourself. Within the context of
> > > China posts, since reading newsgroups and then taking the personal
> > > initiative to dig into info about China and NorthEast Asia, I realize
> > > that even though I've always known that china is a poor country, I've
> > > underestimated just how backward it is, in spite of all the hype and
> > > catching up. For instance, the GDP per capita of China is even lower
> > > than Mexico or Thailand (World Bank Data)!! I didn't know that!!!" You
> > > should also check out soc.culture.china and see that there are some
> > > who may be labelled as 'anti-China' or more accurately, anti-communist
> > > (recently opening up of markets notwithstanding). My divine role is
> > > thus to preserve a Zen balance of the real China - serving as a mirror
> > > to reflect - no more, no less - from a cultural (soc.CULTURE.china,
> > > remember?) perspective. :)
> >
> > A mirror with a filter.
>
> Like CNN.
>
OK, Wolf.
Verno |