In article <1170272397.296434.158840@s48g2000cws.googlegroups.com>,
richasiankid@hotmail.com says...
> On Jan 31, 12:00 pm, Vernon North wrote:
> > In article <1170219368.106807.186...@p10g2000cwp.googlegroups.com>,
> > richasian...@hotmail.com says...
> >
> > > On Jan 30, 12:14 pm, Vernon North wrote:
> >
> > > > > You wrote: "Then why all the posts about how bad China is, with no
> > > > > mention of the
> > > > > trajectory?"
> >
> > > > > Reply: Because China's still vely vely bad! Duh! Do you know what
> > > > > tutors say to failing students? "Johnny, you're making good progress!"
> > > > > Because if you're at the bottom, you can't go any lower. And your past
> > > > > and present GPAs are still not mentionable. Thus the positive focus
> > > > > has got to be 'progress'. Let's say that the GDP per capita of China
> > > > > were to double. That's still very low compared to the US or Japan! The
> > > > > ramifications for the world when China 'grows' has to do with its
> > > > > population size, but if you take into account per capita stats, China
> > > > > is really really backward. That's btw the intention of this thread,
> > > > > now that we're drifting off again and again. Furthermore, as countries
> > > > > grow, growth tends to plateau out (sigmoidal curve?). So you cannot
> > > > > just use 'trajectory' and then project China's into the infinite
> > > > > future in a vacuum - and that's barring any natural disasters,
> > > > > bursting of economic bubbles, or whatever terrorist surprises we may
> > > > > have for us. And it will take a very very long time before China
> > > > > catches up to Japan or US in GDP per capita.
> >
> > > > IOW, the views you express lack balance.
> >
> > > In what way?
> >
> > You write extensively about the bad in China (I agree with most of it)
> > while ignoring the incredible rate of improvement and the growing threat
> > it presents.
> >
> > From The Economic Strategy Institute, February 24th, 2006
> >
> > India vs. China: The Race for the Future
> >
> > "While nothing is forever, the International Monetary Fund believes
> > China, which has been growing at a 10 percent annual rate, can maintain
> > at least 7 to 8 percent growth for the next ten years to fifteen years.
> > If so, it will surpass Japan to become the world's second largest
> > economy in 2016 and could be on a par with the United States by 2040. In
> > fact, in terms of domestic purchasing power, China's economy could
> > effectively be as large as America's by 2025. It is already the world's
> > largest market for more than 100 products such as cell phones, cement,
> > steel, television sets and machine tools and will soon become the
> > largest market for almost everything."
> >
> > Of course, by 2025 the average Chinese will still be much poorer than
> > the average American. But "small" countries with high per-capita
> > incomes are still relative "nobodies" globally. How do you feel about a
> > world in which China is THE economic and military superpower?
> >
> >
>
> As you said by 2025 the average Chinese will still be much poorer than
> the average American. I'm taking the same perspective - for this
> thread anyway - a per capita perspective - as implied/spelled out in
> the initial thread....think of, say comparing automobiles and
> tornadoes. Are cars more dangerous than tornadoes? There are more
> people killed each year in car accidents than in tornadoes. So I guess
> you can say that cars are way more dangerous than tornadoes. Should
> people avoid cars more than they avoid tornadoes? I don't think so.
I'm reporting you to Amnesty International for torturing a metaphor. ;)
Peter Drucker, the best business thinker of the 20th century, said
something like *The important thing is to identify the "future that has
already happened".* Drucker pointed out that major changes take time to
work their way through the economy, and that they become apparent well
before their maximum impact is felt. It's about trajectory. Just as
with tornadoes and cars, watch the trajectory so you can take action
before it's too late.
>
> As for China being the economic and military superpower, ultimately
> it's about winning, and until the Chinese or any other country has
> done so by whatever means (see: Unrestricted Warfare,
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unrestricted_Warfare ) then everything's
> in future tense, there's nothing to crow about *right now*. Isn't it
> true that poor people always live in the future? Meaning if China wins
> then I'll accept it. Gladly!
>
> Translation: I think being fluid in principles (like netting chicks
> for instance, so sweet...!) gets one further ahead, aka pragmatism
> triumphs, maximize friends, minimize enemies, only constant is change
> etc.
Is that an ad for psychopathy? ;)
>
>
> >
> > >http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/17/world/asia/17india.html?pagewanted=...
> >
> > > TIRUCHENGODE, India - As its technology companies soar to the
> > > outsourcing skies, India is bumping up against an improbable
> > > challenge. In a country once regarded as a bottomless well of low-
> > > cost, ready-to-work, English-speaking engineers, a shortage looms.
> > > India still produces plenty of engineers, nearly 400,000 a year at
> > > last count. But their competence has become the issue........The
> > > skills gap reflects the narrow availability of high-quality college
> > > education in India and the galloping pace of the country's service-
> > > driven economy, which is growing faster than nearly all but China's.
> > > The software and service companies provide technology services to
> > > foreign companies, many of them based in the United States. Software
> > > exports alone expanded by 33 percent in the last year.The university
> > > systems of few countries would be able to keep up with such demand,
> > > and India is certainly having trouble. The best and most selective
> > > universities generate too few graduates, and new private colleges are
> > > producing graduates of uneven quality.
> >
> > From The Economic Strategy Institute, February 24th, 2006
> >
> > India vs. China: The Race for the Future
> >
> > "In sum, if you are a short-term investor, China is probably where you
> > should put your money. But if you are in it for the long haul, you might
> > want to bet on India. That certainly seems to be what George Bush is
> > doing as he heads out this week to make nice with his newest
> > international friend.
> >
> > Of course, there is a certain logic in an Indian-Chinese alliance. India
> > could use China's manufacturing know-how and resource mobilization
> > capabilities, and China could learn from India about services, start-
> > ups, and technology. Indeed, when Chinese President Hu Jin Tao visited
> > India last fall, it was Indian Prime Minister Singh who said: "Together
> > we will change the world."
> >
>
> "Together we *will* change the world"? I thought they WERE and still
> ARE the world, and yet look what they've done! They're like, what, 40%
> of the world population? Hahahaha!! Losers.....
Actually, together they ARE changing the world as we write. I know of
many businesses in North America which have postponed growth plans
because the cost of commodities spiked -- largely due to demand in
China. China is crowding others out of manufacturing due to its low
labour costs. India is crowding others out of some service businesses
due to its low labour costs.
>
> Anyway revisit the Lee Kwan Yee interview - he's more on the
> mark....see, realism, not hype. Though I guess for the downtrodden
> (huge concession!) there's always "I have a dream"!
>
> >
> >
> > > > > You wrote: "Most men don't engage in such activities with their wives
> > > > > in tow, and
> > > > > I'm one of them."
> >
> > > > > Reply: "You don't want to have any regrets on your deathbed
> > > > > though....... ;)
> > > > > And the amount of swinging of some of my friends ....well.... let's
> > > > > just leave it at that. Mind you one of them used me (tipped off by an
> > > > > elementary schoolfriend, wow, she's a 1st rate actress!) to get back
> > > > > at her boyfriend once, hehe. And this type of thing may happen more
> > > > > with Caucasians then high achieving geekish WOW playing East Asians -
> > > > > my schoolfriend's WASP and that gf is eurasian.
> > > > > And it's surprisingly how women don't understand men!
> > > > >http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/main.jhtml?xml=/health/2007/01/23/
> > > > > hlife23.xml&page=1
> > > > > And Incidentally the default .ual mode for men is serial monogamy or
> > > > > polygamy, and not strict monogamy."
> >
> > > > The way to avoid deathbed regrets is to get the whoring out of your
> > > > system by the time you're 30 or 35, before you marry. Whoring around
> > > > while married is a formula for turmoil, unhappiness, and deathbed
> > > > regrets.
> >
> > > "Always get a prenup" - Donald Trump
> >
> > Would you believe anyone who uses a comb-over?
> >
>
> $ trumps style, no?
>
That depends. If you like screwing mercenary women, $ trumps style.
Personally, I don't.
Verno |