On 10/05/04 15:08, in article
U8Lnc.14447$V97.13771@newsread1.news.pas.earthlink.net, "Kurt Ullman"
wrote:
> In article , Earl Evleth
> wrote:
>
>> The whole region has the possibility of a hurricane, although I suspect
>> the very south area (Union to Grenada) might have, presently, fewer
>> incidents.
>
> Arubans always remind us when we go that they are outside of the hurricane
> area. Don't have any active volcanoes. The only problem would be the wind.
>
>
The 1990-1999 map of passage is given at
http://stormcarib.com/climatology/ecar_isl.htm
It shows a lot more passing to the north
However in the prior decades a lot more passed through the south.
The spread was very even in 1930-39, for instance.
The trajectories of the storms may have changed to. Looking at
1890-99 some essentially went nearly North South instead of east
west into the Gulf of Mexico.(before sometimes heading north
to hit the US).
Why the change? No idea. If anybody knows anything they can inform us.
For the period 1990-99 the Monthly sequence was
giving the date, wind, category and name.
25 Jul 1990 60 ts ARTHUR
14 Aug 1990 35 ts FRAN
5 Oct 1990 70 h1 KLAUS
7 Aug 1993 50 ts BRET
14 Aug 1993 35 ts CINDY
10 Sep 1994 60 ts DEBBY
13 Jul 1995 30 td CHANTAL
28 Aug 1995 60 ts IRIS
5 Sep 1995 125 h4 LUIS
16 Sep 1995 95 h2 MARILYN
23 Oct 1995 40 ts SEBASTIEN
9 Jul 1996 80 h1 BERTHA
25 Jul 1996 30 td CESAR
9 Sep 1996 70 h1 HORTENSE
6 Sep 1997 75 h1 ERIKA
21 Aug 1998 50 ts BONNIE
21 Sep 1998 100 h3 GEORGES
20 Oct 1999 85 h2 JOSE
17 Nov 1999 130 h4 LENNY
Since the storms are given birth off the African coast when sea temperatures
pass a certain threshold, these conditions usually are met until late July
on. A lot of storms are given birth too and then peter out. A very few
continue to gather strength and continue on across the Atlanic.
The above web site is fairly informative.
Earl
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